Oil prices are set to rise for a third consecutive week as heightened U.S. pressure on Venezuela and Iran fuels concerns over supply disruptions. However, ongoing trade tensions and economic uncertainties continue to weigh on market sentiment.
As of 0949 GMT on Friday, Brent crude futures edged up by 8 cents, or 0.1%, to $74.11 per barrel, marking an eight-day winning streak—the longest since May 2022. Both Brent and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude have gained approximately 2.5% this week, with prices climbing around 7% since early March lows.
According to analysts at BMI, the recent surge in oil prices is largely driven by evolving global sanctions. Earlier this week, U.S. President Donald Trump imposed fresh 25% tariffs on prospective buyers of Venezuelan crude, following sanctions on China’s imports from Iran. The move has disrupted trade, with shipments of Venezuelan oil to China reportedly stalling. Additionally, India’s Reliance Industries, which operates the world’s largest refining complex, is expected to halt imports of Venezuelan crude.
“The potential loss of Venezuelan crude exports, combined with the risk of similar sanctions on Iranian oil, has created an apparent supply tightness in the market,” said June Goh, senior oil analyst at Sparta Commodities.
Further supporting oil prices is a stronger demand outlook in the United States, the world’s largest oil consumer. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed that crude inventories fell by 3.3 million barrels to 433.6 million barrels for the week ending March 21, significantly exceeding analysts’ expectations of a 956,000-barrel decline.
However, broader market concerns over trade disputes have exerted some downward pressure on oil prices. Investors fear that escalating U.S. tariffs could trigger a full-scale trade war, affecting global economic growth and oil demand.
While oil prices remain volatile, analysts do not foresee sustained sharp gains. BMI projects Brent crude to average $76 per barrel in 2025, down from an estimated $80 per barrel in 2024, citing persistent market uncertainties.